“I suspect that we are coming to the end of the housing downturn, as applications for new mortgages, the most important series, have flattened out. I think that the worse of this may well be over.” - Alan Greenspan, October 1, 2006

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

S&P says home prices fall by 12.7 percent in February

A closely watched index shows that U.S. home prices fell by 12.7 percent in February versus last year, with 17 of the 20 metro areas reporting record annual declines.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities also showed Tuesday that home values in 10 cities plunged by double digits led by Las Vegas and Miami. Only Charlotte, N.C., posted a positive return year-over-year.

All 20 metro areas have declined for six straight months.

The narrower 10-city index set a record monthly decline of 13.6 percent.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Pretty vacant: 18.6 mln empty U.S. homes

Home vacancies rise to record 2.9% in first quarter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Putting further downward pressure on home prices, the number of vacant homes in the United States increased by 1 million over the past year to a record 18.6 million, according to government data released Monday.

The vacancy rate for homes usually occupied by the owners rose to a record 2.3 million homes from 2.2 million in the fourth quarter, and was at about 1 million more than was typical before the housing bubble burst.

Analysts say the housing market won't recover until the glut of vacant homes on the market can be worked down. "There is clearly still substantial excess housing supply that will take time to work off," wrote economists for Goldman Sachs. "We think it unlikely that prices begin to stabilize until vacancy rates start declining."

The homeowner-vacancy rate rose to a record 2.9% in the first quarter from 2.8% in the fourth quarter, about 1 percentage point higher than normal. The vacancy rate has jumped in all four regions of the country, as well as in cities, suburbs and rural areas since the housing bubble exploded.

The total U.S. housing stock increased by 2.1 million to 129.4 million in the past year, with about half of that gain accounted for by the increase in vacancies. Much of the newer stock of housing is vacant, the data show.

Of all housing units built for owner-occupancy since April 2000, 10.2% were vacant, up from 8.8% in the fourth quarter and 4.7% two years ago.

While the vacancy rate for single-family homes has risen to 2.5%, the most dramatic increases in vacancies has been in smaller condominium projects.

For all owner-occupied buildings with two to four housing units, 9.4% were vacant, up from 8.1% last quarter. In all owner-occupied buildings with five to nine housing units, the vacancy rate was 15.2%, up from 12.2% last quarter and double the rate of two years earlier.

Vacancy rates in larger condo buildings have fallen from 8.7% a year ago to 6.3%.

Families are no more likely to own their home now than they were in 2002, even with the big effort to push families with poor credit into homeownership through subprime mortgages. The percentage of homes occupied by owners ticked up to 67.9% from 67.7%, after peaking at 69.2% in 2004.

"Given tight lending standards and foreclosures, we expect the homeownership rate will continue to edge lower," wrote Michele Meyer, an economist for Lehman Bros.

Meanwhile, a record 4.1 million vacant homes are for rent, with the rental vacancy rate rising to 10.1%. The record number of vacant rentals should keep rents from rising too fast, which could be a major factor in moderating inflation over the next year or two.

About a fourth of the 18.6 million vacant homes are seasonal homes. Of the 13.9 million vacant homes suitable for year-round occupancy, more than half (7.5 million) are neither for sale nor for rent. Some may be second homes; others may be uninhabitable or in undesirable locations.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Housing - Chicago home prices (April 2008)

With unsold homes piling up and pricing tumbling down, Chicago homeowners have plenty to be nervous about. Is there any end in sight? New data offers an unfriendly answer--with home values far outpacing incomes, Chicago prices could continue to drop for years.


Thursday, April 24, 2008

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Chicago - Workshop aids at-risk mortgage holders

Hope Now, the mortgage-lender initiative spurred by the Bush administration to rescue certain at-risk borrowers from foreclosure, is holding a workshop in Chicago Thursday at which homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages can deal directly with lenders.

Among the companies participating are Countrywide Financial Inc., J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. and HSBC PLC. Also present will be representatives from the city of Chicago, homeowner counseling umbrella group NeighborWorks America and individual counselors.

Borrowers will be able to sit down directly with representatives of their lenders and negotiate ways to refinance loans that have become unaffordable, or set up financial plans to help them make ends meet. Help will be available for Spanish speakers, too.

The session, part of a national tour Hope Now is conducting, will begin at 2 p.m. Thursday, April 24, 2008 at Douglas Park Cultural and Community Center, 1401 S. Sacramento Ave.