Delinquent loan rate jumps in Chicago area

The epic commercial real estate hangover for banks is getting worse.

The delinquency rates for Chicago-area commercial mortgages along with construction and land loan delinquencies jumped again in the second quarter and could rise well into 2010 even as the economy improves. That means local banks aren’t likely to start making commercial real estate loans any time soon.

The delinquency rate on local commercial mortgages climbed to 6.1% in the second quarter. That’s up sharply from 5.6% in the first quarter and nearly double the year-ago quarter, when the rate was 3.6%, according to Foresight Analytics LLC, an Oakland, Calif.-based research firm.

Chicago now has the third-highest rate among the biggest 100 metropolitan areas, eclipsed only by Jacksonville, Fla., and Miami. Nationwide the rate now stands at 4.3%, and Foresight predicts it could climb above 6% next year.

For construction and land loans, which includes lending for condominium projects, the delinquency rate in the Chicago area is now a staggering 21.2%. That’s up from 18.2% in the first quarter and 10.8% in the second quarter last year.

Chicago’s construction and land loan delinquency rate ranks 12th-highest among the top 100 metros; the nationwide rate is 17%.

Foresight sees the national rate eclipsing 20% by the end of the year and peaking in 2010 at about 25%, says Foresight Partner Matthew Anderson.

“Banks are definitely focused inward on their existing portfolios,” Mr. Anderson says. “Until there’s a sense we’re either nearing or have reached a bottom, fresh credit for commercial real estate is going to be very constrained.”

Mr. Anderson says even as credit eases in other sectors of the economy, the availability of commercial real estate loans will lag. That’s a problem likely to stretch into 2011, when a massive wave of commercial mortgage-backed securities issued in 2006 — at near-peak valuations — comes due and borrowers will scurry to refinance those loans.

With the big decline in property values, some of those properties are sure to be worth less than what’s owed.

“That’s setting up a refinancing problem for commercial real estate,” Mr. Anderson says. “There’s going to be a gap between what financing is available and what is needed to replace existing debt. It’s going to wear on the market for several years.”

Foresight, which compiles its data from regulatory filings, defines delinquent loans as those 30 days or more past due. The firm calculates a rate by dividing the dollar amount of the delinquent loans by the value of all outstanding loans.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Thursday that at the end of June, 416 banks were on its “problem list,” meaning they’re at risk of insolvency. The list was at 305 banks at the end of the first quarter and just 117 at the end of the second quarter last year.

The agency, which insures bank deposits, says 84 banks have failed so far this year.

“We expect the numbers of problem banks and failures will remain elevated, even as the economy begins to recover,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said in a statement.

FDIC-insured banks charged off $48.9 billion in uncollectible loans during the second quarter, up from $26.4 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Meanwhile, non-current loans and leases totaled $332 billion, or 4.35% of total loans and leases, according to the FDIC.

Banks are holding more than $34 billion worth of repossessed real estate, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of FDIC data. The banks’ pools of foreclosed properties climbed 12% from the prior three months and are up 72% from a year ago, the newspaper reported.

$8000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit FAQ

When do I need to purchase to qualify?
If you buy a home between Jan. 1 and Dec. 1 this year and close escrow during these dates, you will qualify for an $8,000 tax credit - as long as it is your primary residence and you meet the simple requirements.

How does the law define "first-time homebuyer"?
The law defines "first-time homebuyer" as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.

What are other requirements to qualify?
All U.S. citizens who file taxes are eligible to participate. An income limit of $75,000 a year for individuals and $150,000 a year for joint filers also applies.

How do I apply for the credit?
Taxpayers should use IRS Tax Form 5450 to claim the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

Does the credit have to be repaid?
No. Unlike a similar tax credit passed in 2008, this $8,000 tax credit does not have to
be repaid to the IRS.

Can I use the tax credit toward a down payment or other closing costs?
Yes. An announcement made May 29 allows the tax credit to be used toward purchase costs of a home, including down payment in some cases. This can be done one of two ways. First, buyers using an FHA-approved lender can sell their anticipated tax credit to the lender and use the proceeds to immediately apply the tax credit to any down payment above the minimum down payment of 3.5 percent required with FHA-insured mortgages. Second, buyers who receive financing through state housing finance agencies and certain non-profits will be able to use the tax credit for their down payments via a tax credit advance loan that does not result in any cash back to the buyer. In both cases, buyers can only access the credit after filing their tax returns with the IRS.

Mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures jump

Almost 14 percent of Illinois homeowners with a mortgage were behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of the second quarter, up from about 9 percent at the same time last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn.

As of June 30, 9.2 percent of mortgages in Illinois were past due and 4.7 percent were in foreclosure, according to the association’s second-quarter National Delinquency Survey, released Thursday.

The numbers are similar to those nationwide. In the U.S., 4.3 percent of borrowers were in foreclosure and 8.9 percent had missed at least one payment, according to the survey.

The Illinois figures marked sharp increases from last year — 6 percent of mortgages were late and 3.1 percent were in foreclosure in the state at the end of the second quarter of 2008, according to the association.

Nationwide, 6.2 percent of mortgages were late and 2.75 percent were in foreclosure at the end of second-quarter 2008.

The record-high numbers in Thursday’s report are being driven by borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgages, rather than the shady subprime loans with adjustable rates that kicked off the mortgage crisis.

One in three new foreclosures nationwide between April and June was from a prime, fixed-rate loan, up from one in five a year earlier. Last year, subprime adjustable-rate loans caused the largest share of foreclosures.

The worst of the trouble is still concentrated in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which accounted for 44 percent of new foreclosures in the country. Nearly 12 percent of all loans in Florida were in foreclosure, the highest in the country, followed by Nevada at 9 percent.

"Clearly we have not seen the bottom in Florida," said Jay Brinkmann, the trade group's chief economist.

President Barack Obama has pledged to fight the problem, but its foreclosure prevention program, known as "Making Home Affordable," is off to a disappointing start. As of July, only about one in 10 of eligible borrowers had signed up.

The success of the program depends on the economy stabilizing. The number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for the second straight week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The number of new jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 last week, from a revised figure of 561,000. Wall Street economists expected a drop to 550,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

Homebuyer tax credit ends soon

There's barely three months left before the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers ends -- and it can take that long to close on your new home.

Time is running out to claim the $8,000 first-time homebuyers tax credit.

Passed earlier this year as part of the economic stimulus package, the credit is good for up to $8,000, or 10% of the purchase price, and applies to people who have not owned a home in the previous three years. (There are some income restrictions.) The best part: Unlike a similar program from 2008, the credit does not have to be repaid.

The bad part: It ends on Dec. 1.

Because it usually takes around 90 days to close on a house after a contract is signed, buyers have very little time left to act. As of Thurs., Aug. 27, there were only 96 days left before the credit ends.

"Buyers have to get a home under contract very, very soon," said Tom Kunz, CEO of Century 21. "They probably should get out looking."

Sense of urgency

What they will find may surprise them: Many of the prime properties have already been snapped up. Home sales have been on the upswing, and inventories are so depleted in hot markets that first-time buyers are struggling to find homes in their price range.

In Whittier, Calif., for example, there are few repossessed homes for sale. Those are easy to buy because there isn't a lot of red tape and the bank wants to get rid of them as quickly as possible. Instead, most of the properties are short sales, where the sellers have to convince their lender to let them sell the house for less than they owe.

"That's why there's such a sense of urgency now," said Irma Tapper, a Century 21 real estate agent in Whittier. "The banks have to approve short sales, and they're taking three to six months to do that."

That means a first timer putting a bid on a short-sale might not get an answer form the bank until well after the Dec. 1 deadline for the tax credit. So when an actual repossession listing hits the markets, it creates a feeding frenzy.

Chuck Whitehead, who runs the Coldwell Banker agency in Temecula, Calif., said one recent listing hit the market on a Friday and by Monday there were 57 bids.

The National Association of Realtors attributes much of this activity to the first-time buyer tax credit. It estimates that 1.8 million buyers will file for the credit, and 350,000 of them wouldn't have been able to buy without it.

"It makes a big difference because most of these clients are in a lower price range," said Michelle Edmunds, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Temecula, Calf., who has closed sales for six first-time buyers. "The houses they buy need work and normally they wouldn't want to move in because of the [less than perfect] conditions the homes are in."

That is true for Wesley Forsythe. This June, the 30-year-old computer consultant and his girlfriend bought a row house in the Fishtown section of Philadelphia. Since he paid just $80,000 for the three-bedroom, two-bath place, the credit acted like a 10% discount.

"It allowed us to expand our price range and plan additional renovations," he said. "My mortgage is several hundred dollars less than what my new rent would have been."

Forsythe applied for the credit immediately after closing, filing an amended 2008 tax return. The IRS cut him a check in less than seven weeks. He's spending it now on new hardwood floors, repainting most of the interior and renovating a bathroom. He's stretching the cash by doing much of the work himself.

Cash for Clunkers effect

Of course, analysts worry that this frenzy will dry up once the tax credit expires. They argue that without the incentive, much of the pressure on homebuyers to act quickly will vanish, and the nascent housing recovery could slump.

In many ways the tax credit is similar to the Cash for Clunkers program that ended this week. Already, auto dealers are anticipating that car sales will evaporate after accelerating during the program.

"It's just like Cash for Clunkers," said Robert Dye, a senior economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "It runs the risk of a let-down as the program runs its course."

Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., who is a former real estate broker, is pushing legislation to extend the tax credit through next year, increase it to $15,000, include non-first-time homebuyers, and remove income restrictions.

The effort has drawn strong industry support.

"We need to stimulate the move-up buyer," said Century 21's Kunz, "so it works its way up the pricing food chain. That's what we need to get inventory moving again."

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY INCREASES 7 PERCENT IN JULY

IRVINE, Calif. — August 13, 2009 — RealtyTrac^® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its July 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 360,149 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of nearly 7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 32 percent from July 2008. The report also shows that one in every 355 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in July.

“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”

View U.S. foreclosure heat map and comment on this report.

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

For the 31st consecutive month Nevada documented the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 56 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing in July — more than six times the national average. Initial default notices (NOD) in Nevada decreased 18 percent from the previous month, likely the result of a new state law requiring lenders to offer mediation to homeowners facing foreclosure. The law took effect July 1. Meanwhile, scheduled auctions (NTS) and bank repossessions (REO) in Nevada both increased more than 20 percent from the previous month, boosting overall foreclosure activity in the state by 4 percent on a month-over-month basis.

Initial defaults (NOD) in California spiked 15 percent from the previous month, and the state registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the third month in a row. One in every 123 California housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, nearly three times the national average. Scheduled auctions (NTS) in California were down 1 percent from the previous month, but bank repossessions (REO) were up 4 percent — leaving overall foreclosure activity up nearly 7 percent on a month-over-month basis.

One in every 135 Arizona housing units received a foreclosure filing in July, the nation’s third highest state foreclosure rate and more than 2.5 times the national average. Scheduled auctions (NTS), the first public record in the Arizona foreclosure process, jumped 25 percent from the previous month while bank repossessions stayed flat.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Florida, Utah, Idaho, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado and Oregon.

Four states account for more than half of total foreclosure activity

The top four state foreclosure activity totals in July were reported by California, with 108,104 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; Florida, with 56,486 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; Arizona, with 19,694 properties receiving a foreclosure filing; and Nevada, with 19,535 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. Together these four states accounted for nearly 57 percent of the nation’s total foreclosure activity.

Although Florida bank repossessions (REO) decreased 8 percent from the previous month, the state’s overall foreclosure activity was still up 7 percent from the previous month because of a 9 percent month-over-month increase in both initial default notices (LIS) and scheduled auctions (NFS).

Illinois registered the fifth highest state foreclosure activity total, with 14,524 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the month. Overall foreclosure activity in Illinois increased nearly 35 percent from the previous month, boosted by an 86 percent surge in default notices (LIS), which bounced back from low levels in May and June. A state law enacted April 5 gave delinquent borrowers an extension of up to 90 days before the start of the foreclosure process.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Texas (12,077), Georgia (11,136), Ohio (11,021), Michigan (8,257) and New Jersey (6,467).

Foreclosure activity in Michigan dropped 39 percent from the previous month, mostly due to a 66 percent decrease in scheduled auctions (NTS. A state law that took effect July 6 requires lenders — before scheduling a foreclosure auction — to provide delinquent borrowers a uniform default notice with contact information for approved housing counselors who can assist in loan modification. The law freezes foreclosure proceedings an extra 90 days for homeowners who commit to work on a loan modification plan.

Four states dominate top 10 metro foreclosure rates

Foreclosure filings were reported on 16,798 Las Vegas properties in July, one in every 47 housing units — more than 7.5 times the national average and the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000. The city’s foreclosure activity increased nearly 6 percent from the previous month and 89 percent from July 2008.

Seven California metro areas documented foreclosure rates among the top 10 in July. Stockton posted the nation’s second highest metro foreclosure rate — one in every 62 housing units received a foreclosure filing — followed by Modesto at No. 3 (one in 63), Merced at No. 5 (one in 66), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario at No. 6 (one in 67), Bakersfield at No. 7 (one in 76), Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 8 (one in 83), and Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville at No. 10 (one in 105).

Other cities with top 10 metro foreclosure rates were Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., at No. 4, with one in every 64 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., at No. 9, with one in every 103 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Report methodology

The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month — broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month, only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous month. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.

U.S. Foreclosure Market Data by State – July 2009

		Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Rate Rank	State Name	NOD	LIS	NTS	NFS	REO	Total	1/every X HU (rate)	%? from Jun 09	%? from Jul 08
--	U.S.	62,939	71,565	104,830	33,557	87,258	360,149	355	6.74	32.32
33	Alabama	0	0	1,630	0	452	2,082	1,026	-23.34	141.25*
24	Alaska	3	0	266	0	102	371	761	76.67	79.23
3	Arizona	2	0	14,120	0	5,572	19,694	135	16.99	47.52
21	Arkansas	104	0	1,319	0	828	2,251	572	35.03*	110.77*
2	California	50,917	0	35,802	0	21,385	108,104	123	6.99	49.55
9	Colorado	5	0	3,947	0	1,536	5,488	388	-4.12	2.08
29	Connecticut	0	1,084	0	190	295	1,569	917	7.84	-22.10
37	Delaware	0	0	0	226	72	298	1304	-12.61	125.76
	District of Columbia	267	0	219	0	35	521	546	24.94	-6.80
4	Florida	0	35,227	0	14,502	6,757	56,486	154	6.78	23.11
7	Georgia	1	0	7,616	0	3,519	11,136	356	-20.59	10.68
15	Hawaii	186	0	481	0	323	990	512	40.23	332.31
6	Idaho	1,290	0	1,051	0	150	2,491	253	32.43*	166.13*
8	Illinois	0	6,770	0	4,060	3,694	14,524	361	34.53	62.92
17	Indiana	0	1,015	0	1,881	2,290	5,186	536	-6.86	8.43
43	Iowa	0	0	227	0	374	601	2,212	7.32	20.68
30	Kansas	0	183	0	408	728	1,319	925	37.68	94.83
39	Kentucky	0	405	0	488	341	1,234	1,545	9.30	0.65
40	Louisiana	0	6	0	928	183	1,117	1,664	-23.07	9.83
41	Maine	0	138	0	212	57	407	1,712	39.38	59.61
11	Maryland	0	3,521	0	633	998	5,152	450	66.19	65.98
16	Massachusetts	0	3,548	0	1,049	517	5,114	532	58.77	43.09
19	Michigan	1	0	2,695	0	5,561	8,257	548	-39.32	-28.76
20	Minnesota	12	0	2,266	0	1,847	4,125	559	23.80	146.86
45	Mississippi	0	0	354	0	124	478	2,625	-36.69	151.58*
27	Missouri	5	0	1,729	0	1,441	3,175	834	2.02	-9.60†
47	Montana	0	0	2	0	88	90	4,839	45.16	-36.62
46	Nebraska	0	164	0	5	26	195	4,004	30.87	-70.45
1	Nevada	7,139	0	7,833	0	4,563	19,535	56	4.11	94.18
31	New Hampshire	0	0	611	0	12	623	954	42.24	-31.01
18	New Jersey	0	4,210	0	1,505	752	6,467	541	49.25	39.92
32	New Mexico	0	479	0	270	128	877	983	23.52	61.21*
38	New York	0	4,613	0	871	470	5,954	1,334	22.76	-3.45
36	North Carolina	1,120	0	756	0	1,552	3,428	1,203	7.97	-20.33
48	North Dakota	0	1	0	26	23	50	6,211	56.25	-23.08
12	Ohio	0	5,062	0	3,032	2,927	11,021	460	-2.05	-18.10
35	Oklahoma	595	0	522	0	420	1,537	1,056	18.69	-11.05
10	Oregon	29	0	2,463	0	1,113	3,605	446	15.80	84.40
34	Pennsylvania	0	1,869	0	1,805	1,642	5,316	1,030	7.59	27.36*
28	Rhode Island	0	0	17	0	488	505	893	-44.63	2.23
26	South Carolina	0	1,209	0	484	735	2,428	833	44.01	82.15*
42	South Dakota	0	60	0	56	48	164	2,178	45.13	446.67*
22	Tennessee	0	0	2,263	0	2,309	4,572	596	-2.20	0.15††
25	Texas	24	0	7,194	0	4,859	12,077	781	0.45	16.64
5	Utah	1,234	0	1,728	0	732	3,694	250	6.42	93.30
50	Vermont	0	0	0	0	11	11	28,312	0.00	120.00
14	Virginia	5	0	3,927	0	2,474	6,406	511	23.48	11.51†
13	Washington	0	0	3,632	0	1,738	5,370	511	14.79	94.42*
49	West Virginia	0	0	119	0	20	139	6,350	21.93	265.79
23	Wisconsin	0	2,001	0	926	890	3,817	671	8.10	86.74*
44	Wyoming	0	0	41	0	57	98	2,473	16.67	-26.32